When the Panthers won their Week 17 game against the New Orleans Saints in the legendary Kyle Allen versus Teddy Bridgewater showdown Ryan Kalil Jersey 2019 , Carolina ended up finishing 7-9 instead of 6-10. This victory caused the Panthers 2019 first round draft pick to fall from a potential Top 10 selection to No. 16. I’m on record as saying I’m fine with this for two reasons. First, football is supposed to be entertaining and it was dang fun beating the Saints after seven straight losses. Second, I believe the NFL draft is largely educated guesswork so if you trust your scouts and GM to nail the No. 9 pick then you should trust them to do the same at No. 16. The Panthers will have multiple roster holes to fill next year and will need immediate production from their early-round draft picks similar to the impacts made by 2018’s rookies D.J. Moore (No. 24 pick) and Donte Jackson (No. 55). One way to assess the probability of drafting a Year 1 impact rookie is to go back and look at draft positions of the players who made the Professional Football Writers of America all-rookie team. Based on data I pulled from Football Reference here are the draft positions of the PFWA’s all-rookie selections between 2014 and 2018 (and here’s my nerdy spreadsheet if you’re interested.) This analysis focuses on regular position players only and excludes special teamers. Mick Smiley, Cat Scratch ReaderOver the last five years 22 all-rookie selections were drafted in the Top 10 while 21 were drafted between 11-20. A total of 50 players were drafted among these groups between 2014 and 2018 so more than 40 percent of Top 20 picks have been named all-rookie. Things drop off pretty quickly after the Top 20 though. In a weird quirk, only nine of the 50 players (18 percent) selected between 21-30 made all-rookie which is a much lower number than the 15 players (30 percent) drafted between 31-40. Roughly 15 percent of players drafted between 41-70 have been named all-rookie. Good luck finding a needle in a haystack after that. Interestingly, this same general pattern between draft position and overall success can be seen in Pro Bowl selections. As I’ve previously written, the 2017 Pro Bowl roster had the highest representation among Top 10 draft picks (23 players) followed by those picked between 11-20 (16). Just as with the all-rookie selections, there was a drop off after the Top 20 with 10 Pro Bowlers drafted between 21-30 and nine Pro Bowlers selected between 31-40. Things then level out among Pro Bowlers drafted between 40-100, also reflecting a similar distribution for the all-rookie selections. If you’re still annoyed the Panthers beat the Saints in a meaningless Week 17 game which ended up costing Carolina a higher draft spot in 2019, hopefully this data will help you enter the offseason with a sunnier disposition. All is not lost. The key is to pick in the Top 20, which the Panthers will be doing at No. 16. And if that doesn’t do anything for you then just remember that Panthers fans ended their season with a fun win against a division rival. Saints fans ended their season with heartache and pending legal action against the NFL. It took almost eight years, y’all, but Cam Newton has finally become a good quarterback. The former first round pick turned in a performance for the ages against the Dallas Cowboys and has pulled his season average completion percentage up to 65%. As we all know, completing 65% of your passes on average is the absolute benchmark for good quarterbacking. It’s a black and white standard.I assume that is the story of the season. I assume that everybody who spent years claiming that Newton was overrated during his 2015 NFL MVP season, who was clamoring for Derek Anderson to start, and who has, for months 2019 Trai Turner Jersey , been trying to buy passage on the Taylor Heinicke bandwagon has now been quieted. That their support has been thrown unequivocally behind Cameron Jerrell Newton, efficient passer of the football, as the quarterback of the Carolina Panthers for now and hereafter.Never we mind that Newton has averaged almost 40 yards a game on the ground. Never we mind that those yards often came on critical third and fourth down opportunities. Those yards and those plays aren’t valuable when produced by a quarterback and neither are the 55 touchdowns he has rushed for since entering the league.The Panthers stuck by their first overall pick for longer than many franchises would have. His ascendancy to being a good and relevant quarterback in his eighth season qualifies him as a late bloomer. Other first overall picks didn’t receive as much as time as Newton has to prove that they were good quarterbacks. Alex Smith only received seven seasons in San Francisco, which is mathematically less than Newton’s eight. David Carr, meanwhile, was released after four seasons by the Houston Texans.Ironically, both of those quarterbacks became good in their last seasons with their original teams. They posted 70% and 68.9% completion ratings respectively. Maybe that is the sign that this is Newton’s final year. Maybe the Panthers are just letting Derek Anderson rest for a season so that he can take the league by storm in 2019.It will be a tough call for general manager Marty Hurney, to be sure. On the one hand, Newton is now a good quarterback. On the other hand, the Panthers probably have a better chance of making the Super Bowl without him. It’s not like he ever proved capable of carrying their entire offense — kicking and screaming — through the playoffs all by himself.As for 2018, Newton will probably try to maintain his performance as a good quarterback. He can do that if he keeps his season average completion percentage above 65%, I’m told. That will probably mean he has to stop running so gosh darn much. Smiling, too. That’s OK, though. The Panthers have never been hurt by leaving a few first downs on the table, letting drives stall out, and not scoring in the red zone.